Why does China want Taiwan?

Taiwan’s contract with China expires in 2008. It also happens that Taiwan is rich. Not only is it rich, but it is a creditor country. Taiwan holds approximately $500 billion of foreign reserve and is the largest exporter of computer monitors and a major exporter of PC components (98% of Taiwan’s exports are industrial goods). Taiwan’s exports area is a direct reflection off their technological achievements, as can also be seen in Taiwan’s industries; major industries include electronics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. This entire economic powerhouse is contained on an island slightly smaller than the sum area of Maryland and Delaware.

China’s own generals have stated that they would see no part of an independent Taiwan. “…We will effectively perform our glorious mission of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity in accordance with the will of the motherland and the wishes of the people” (Honest to God this is exactly what he said). How does the rest of the world know that the “people” are honestly in favor of such action? Remember the “Great Firewall of China”? Do the citizens of China know the whole story regarding Taiwan? Do they know the truth?

Of course, any mother country has the right to resist independence movements within their borders. It’s a right of that country to maintain its current stature. But to “get well-prepared for military struggle” doesn’t quiet seem like simple resistance. China has done something wrong and Taiwan wants to be independent.

I believe that China wants this war not only to affirm their control of this gold nugget of an island, but also to challenge the United States for global supremacy. The US has traditionally been the global peacekeeper, pushing US foreign policy around the globe. China would love to have one tenth of that kind of power. Even if Taiwan was technically a US territory, as some will argue, the US has no military might available for a Chinese tea party. We are stretched too thin in the Middle East Quagmire. We just don’t have the manpower available for a new campaign. A third war in Taiwan would be disastrous. How could the United States even remotely maintain a war in both the Middle East and Taiwan? The most obvious answer is a draft, a very unpopular one at that.

The chances of US involvement in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are low given our badly depleted army and that the US is non-supportive of any Taiwanese independence movement.

With that said, the Chinese government will probably invade Taiwan in 2008 for its economic importance, to finalize its claim of Taiwan and because neither the UN nor the US can do a thing about it. Any proposed sanctions or other action punishing China would be vetoed thanks to the Chinese seat on the Security Council.

If China was smart, they would let Taiwan separate and pass trade legislation in Taiwan’s favor. Having a strong economic ally, possibly progressing to a political ally, is much better than a subjugated state simply because an ally can’t over through your government and their dissentious population is their problem and not yours.

The question becomes, if the US can’t help Taiwan, then who will? Most of you would wonder about Japan. Well, Japan can’t do anything. Really, they can’t. Their constitution very plainly forbids any form of aggression against any country for any reason. The only reason they could fight a war is in self-defense. And frankly, their military isn’t that good. I don’t think there’d be much of a contest between China and Japan. It is worth noting that Japan is an island, which may give them a half a sneeze’s worth of a chance against a Chinese invasion.

South Korea perhaps? Not a chance. They are even closer to China than Japan and they don’t even have enough troops to guard their own border. They must rely on robotic sentries to do the work for them. How would they be able to launch, let alone maintain, an offensive campaign?

We can’t forget about Russia, can we? Well yes, we can. Russia has been selling the Chinese military hardware for a while now and began military training exercises with them for building friendship or something like that. That puts the Russkies out of the game.

So, who would have the military to repulse a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? It would have to be somewhere in Europe. They are currently the only force capable of fighting the Chinese. Most of their armies remain intact, except for Britain, whose state of military affairs is wretched at best. Eurocorps might help Taiwan under a UN peace mission or other means, but China will probably find a way to veto it. Besides, their operational goals are based closer to Europe. The European Union couldn’t act as an entity as they don’t have a unified army. It’s possible that they could organize a defensive force for Taiwan, but I don’t see that happening.

China, you have an open door into Taiwan. Bon Appetite.